3 edition of A Statistical Risk Model for Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation (Acis Working Paper) found in the catalog.
A Statistical Risk Model for Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation (Acis Working Paper)
Stephen M. Meyer
by Center for International Relations
Written in English
|The Physical Object|
|Number of Pages||29|
What causes nuclear proliferation? 1 What role do security threats play in driving states to acquire nuclear weapons? Intuitively, security is the most important factor driving nuclear acquisition. 2 Yet existing security theories of proliferation, while accounting for why some states with grave security concerns have developed nuclear weapons, are unable to explain why others have not. 3. March 5, marks the 50th anniversary of the entry into effect of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Four Brookings experts on .
The next class is if maximum risk score is equal or greater than , it has "High risk". The next class is if maximum risk score is equal or greater than , it has "Medium risk". The rest has "Low risk". This classification can be easily implemented with RME-EP rule engine models. This produces risk distribution as in the following chart. I agree with Tyler who wrote recently that “the risk of nuclear war remains the world’s No. 1 problem, even if that risk does not seem so pressing on any particular day.”. The probability of a nuclear war is inherently difficult to predict but what strikes me in this careful survey by Luisa Rodriguez for the Effective Altruism Forum is how much higher all the expert predictions and model.
The purpose of the model, which has been applied successfully on non-nuclear U.K. large infrastructure projects, offers the promise of reducing financial risk in building new nuclear power plants. To read how the RAB would work check out this article posted at World Nuclear News written by Ed Kee and colleagues at the Washington, DC, based firm. Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the author's teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management Reviews:
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This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national.
This volume provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date collection of theoretical perspectives regarding the sources of and propensity for nuclear proliferation. The authors probe the broader questions of why states pursue or abstain from nuclear weapons, as well as finer methodological issues involving concept definition and development, hypothesis testing, and generalization of findings.
Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or eration has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear.
Stephen M. Meyer is the author of The End of the Wild ( avg rating, ratings, 19 reviews, published ), The Dynamics of Nuclear Proliferation (/5. 4 Beyond the Security Model: Assessing the Capacity of Neoclassical Realism for Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation Natasha E. Bajema 58 5 Nuclear Latency and Nuclear Proliferation Scott D.
Sagan 80 6 When Does a State Become a "Nuclear Weapons State". An Exercise in Measurement Validation Jacques E. Hymans 7 The Little-Known Story of. Forecasting Nuclear War: Stasi/KGB Intelligence Cooperation under Project RYaN.
Between and the foreign intelligence branches of the Soviet KGB and the East German Ministry of State Security launched a combined effort to develop a system for detecting signs of an impending western nuclear.
The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Article (PDF Available) in Annual Review of Political Science 14(1) June with 7, Reads How we measure 'reads'.
I find support for the argument based on statistical analysis of a global sample of countries from toan original data set of US nonproliferation sanctions episodes, and qualitative analysis of the South Korean and Taiwanese nuclear weapons programs. In Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century: The Role of.
This book, faced with the continuing threats posed by nuclear weapons and all weapons of mass destruction, takes stock and evaluates how existing technologies and methodologies can work together, and identifies new opportunities for advancements in the field.
Many books on forecasting and time series analysis have been published recently. Somc of them are introductory and just describe the various methods heuristically.
Certain others are very theoretical and focus on only a few selected topics. This book is about the statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts. The contributing factors for proliferation are widely acknowledged and include domestic drivers, economic and security concerns, as well as regime and leadership types The two-volume set on Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century is helpful in many valuable ways.
There are sound analytical reasons for concluding that. problem of forecasting risk, and calculating the ratio of the maximum to the minimum risk forecasts. This provides a succinct way of capturing model risk because if the underlying models have passed some model evaluation criteria used by the authorities and nancial institutions, they can be considered reputable risk forecasting candidates.
To sustain a clean environment by reducing fossil fuels-based energies and increasing the integration of renewable-based energy sources, i.e., wind and solar power, have become the national policy for many countries.
The increasing demand for renewable energy sources, such as wind, has created interest in the economic and technical issues related to the integration into the power grids.
CONTROLLING THE proliferation of nuclear weapons is one of the major challenges we face as a global society. Given that public health is “what we, as a society, do collectively to ensure the conditions in which people can be healthy,”1 (p) controlling the proliferation of nuclear weapons—and ultimately abolishing them—must be a major global health priority.
It covers linear regression and time series forecasting models as well as general principles of thoughtful data analysis. The time series material is illustrated with output produced by Statgraphics, a statistical software package that is highly interactive and has good features for testing and comparing models, including a parallel-model.
Statistics and risk in the nuclear industry Nuclear power, after a decade of being ignored, is again becoming an the nuclear industry. Statistical work has been done, but by chemists, physicists and engineers, usually using textbook Th eoretical model-building, based on physical laws, was widely used in the design, and this is.
MSC Training offer statistical training in many areas including trend analysis, forecasting and risk modelling. Our lead trainer, Nigel Marriott, also blogs about many statistical topics in the public domain and so we have collated all of Nigel's blogs on the subject of making forecasts into a single index page for your convenience.
The risk of proliferation of nuclear weapons among countries has been limited in the past by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed in The treaty recognizes five countries as “Nuclear Weapons States,” and three other countries not party to the treaty are de facto possessors of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear power is now a fact of international life, and recent developments have aroused public and governmental interest in the nuclear power-nuclear weapons proliferation. This book provides a. attention of statistical researchers. By Wikipedia’s de nition, \Credit risk is the risk of loss due to a debtor’s non-payment of a loan or other line of credit." (, as of March ) Central to credit risk is the default event, which occurs if the debtor is unable.
Here we recommend the use of a statistical approach to risk management, notably by taking advantage of the resources offered by modelling. The present article is a follow-up to our quantitative assessment of occupational risks based on statistical modelling of severity data .Security Commitments and Nuclear Proliferation.
Acquiring nuclear weapons can be costly, in terms of financial demands, an increased likelihood of international diplomatic censure and economic sanctions, and enhanced danger of regional arms races.
Why then do states go nuclear and pay these costs?A nuclear power plant is a thermal power station in which the heat source is a nuclear is typical of thermal power stations, heat is used to generate steam that drives a steam turbine connected to a generator that produces ofthe International Atomic Energy Agency reported there were nuclear power reactors in operation in 30 countries.